ISIS emerges from ashes of buried Ottoman Empire? 

Ottoman empire collapsed around 1918, though it took another turbulent six years and young-turks revolution under Mustafa Kemal Pasha to formally pronounce the demise of caliphate (3rd March, 1924). But isn't it strange that almost century later, British-French orchestrated division of the empire resonates across the region of Gulf. Americans seem to have opened a Pandora Box which French and British tried to close with the help of Hashmities and Sauds towards the end of first world war. 

Brief History of Ottoman Empire

Have Americans opened it just to redraw the geographical boundaries of Arabian peninsula or to push their arms sales (out of top 15 arms sales dealers in the world 10 are American, one British, one Italian, one Russian and a couple French with total arms sale touching US $ 395 billion in 2012) http://www.sipri.org/media/pressreleases/2014/top100_january2014?  Another point of view is that are Americans doing this to ensure that the Europeans remain under their influence of power instead of slipping towards the rising Putin-Xi camp?

There are even more questions arising out of the ashes of history which Americans have sprung flying around all of us culminating in interesting scenarios and even more questions than answers. 

From a Muslim stand point the question to watch out for is that Will Americans be able to contain this debris of history or let Saud family (the custodians of two holy places) face the torrent (also known as Arab Spring) which actually started from Lebanon in 1978 or as some say in 1947 when Israel was placed in the heart of Arab peninsula as a nation-state? Will these dictators and kings of un-naturally divided Ottoman empire be able to hop from super power to another to ensure their grip over the resources and general Arab populations (ruled supremely by tribes and clans and not by the British-French coined notion of nation-state)?  

In this context the rise of Islamic Sultanate of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is an interesting phenomenon. On the face of it, rise of such an extremist force is claiming what once has been part of Ottoman Empire till first world war. But in reality, the notion has always been in the hearts and mind of general Arab population throughout these past decades. It also resembles in some ways with Afghan conundrum where artificially stalled and foreign supported puppet governments could not address the genuine needs and demands of the locals and eventually the gap between the rulers and ruled was filled by a lower-middle class power group by using the name and force of a religion (hence they were called Taliban). 
No doubt these are Volatile, vulnerable and chaotic times, but like every rise has a fall we should consider finding some solace from Confucius who puts it  this way (perhaps for the entire human race and not only for rulers): "our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall." 
Below is an interesting read in this regard to understand the background of Syria, Iraq and rest of the region and to some extent it also gives you an idea about the rise of ISIS. Happy reading

Iraq and Syria Follow Lebanon's Precedent

Geopolitical Weekly

Tuesday, August 26, 2014 -

By George Friedman

Lebanon was created out of the Sykes-Picot Agreement. This agreement between Britain and France reshaped the collapsed Ottoman Empire south of Turkey into the states we know today -- Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, and to some extent the Arabian Peninsula as well. For nearly 100 years, Sykes-Picot defined the region. A strong case can be made that the nation-states Sykes-Picot created are now defunct, and that what is occurring in Syria and Iraq represents the emergence of post-British/French maps that will replace those the United States has been trying to maintain since the collapse of Franco-British power.

The Invention of Middle East Nation-States

Sykes-Picot, named for French diplomat Francois Georges-Picot and his British counterpart, Sir Mark Sykes, did two things. First, it created a British-dominated Iraq. Second, it divided the Ottoman province of Syria on a line from the Mediterranean Sea east through Mount Hermon. Everything north of this line was French. Everything south of this line was British. The French, who had been involved in the Levant since the 19th century, had allies among the region's Christians. They carved out part of Syria and created a country for them. Lacking a better name, they called it Lebanon, after the nearby mountain of the same name.
The British named the area to the west of the Jordan River after the Ottoman administrative district of Filistina, which turned into Palestine on the English tongue. However, the British had a problem. During World War I, while the British were fighting the Ottoman Turks, they had allied with a number of Arabian tribes seeking to expel the Turks. Two major tribes, hostile to each other, were the major British allies. The British had promised postwar power to both. It gave the victorious Sauds the right to rule Arabia -- hence Saudi Arabia. The other tribe, the Hashemites, had already been given the newly invented Iraqi monarchy and, outside of Arabia, a narrow strip of arable ground to the east of the Jordan River. For lack of a better name, it was called Trans-Jordan, or the other side of the Jordan. In due course the "trans" was dropped and it became Jordan.
And thus, along with Syria, five entities were created between the Mediterranean and Tigris, and between Turkey and the new nation of Saudi Arabia. This five became six after the United Nations voted to create Israel in 1947. The Sykes-Picot agreement suited European models and gave the Europeans a framework for managing the region that conformed to European administrative principles. The most important interest, the oil in Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula, was protected from the upheaval in their periphery as Turkey and Persia were undergoing upheaval. This gave the Europeans what they wanted.
What it did not do was create a framework that made a great deal of sense to the Arabs living in this region. The European model of individual rights expressed to the nation-states did not fit their cultural model. For the Arabs, the family -- not the individual -- was the fundamental unit of society. Families belonged to clans and clans to tribes, not nations. The Europeans used the concept of the nation-state to express divisions between "us" and "them." To the Arabs, this was an alien framework, which to this day still competes with religious and tribal identities.
The states the Europeans created were arbitrary, the inhabitants did not give their primary loyalty to them, and the tensions within states always went over the border to neighboring states. The British and French imposed ruling structures before the war, and then a wave of coups overthrew them after World War II. Syria and Iraq became pro-Soviet states while Israel, Jordan and the Arabians became pro-American, and monarchies and dictatorships ruled over most of the Arab countries. These authoritarian regimes held the countries together.

Reality Overcomes Cartography

It was Lebanon that came apart first. Lebanon was a pure invention carved out of Syria. As long as the Christians for whom Paris created Lebanon remained the dominant group, it worked, although the Christians themselves were divided into warring clans. But after World War II, the demographics changed, and the Shiite population increased. Compounding this was the movement of Palestinians into Lebanon in 1948. Lebanon thus became a container for competing clans. Although the clans were of different religions, this did not define the situation. Multiple clans in many of these religious groupings fought each other and allied with other religions.
Moreover, Lebanon's issues were not confined to Lebanon. The line dividing Lebanon from Syria was an arbitrary boundary drawn by the French. Syria and Lebanon were not one country, but the newly created Lebanon was not one country, either. In 1976 Syria -- or more precisely, the Alawite dictatorship in Damascus -- invaded Lebanon. Its intent was to destroy the Palestinians, and their main ally was a Christian clan. The Syrian invasion set off a civil war that was already flaring up and that lasted until 1990.
Lebanon was divided into various areas controlled by various clans. The clans evolved. The dominant Shiite clan was built around Nabi Berri. Later, Iran sponsored another faction, Hezbollah. Each religious faction had multiple clans, and within the clans there were multiple competitors for power. From the outside it appeared to be strictly a religious war, but that was an incomplete view. It was a competition among clans for money, security, revenge and power. And religion played a role, but alliances crossed religious lines frequently.
The state became far less powerful than the clans. Beirut, the capital, became a battleground for the clans. The Israelis invaded in order to crush the Palestinian Liberation Organization, with Syria's blessing, and at one point the United States intervened, partly to block the Israelis. When Hezbollah blew up the Marine barracks in Beirut in 1983, killing hundreds of Marines, U.S. President Ronald Reagan, realizing the amount of power it would take to even try to stabilize Lebanon, withdrew all troops. He determined that the fate of Lebanon was not a fundamental U.S. interest, even if there was a Cold War under way.
The complexity of Lebanon goes far beyond this description, and the external meddling from Israel, Syria, Iran and the United States is even more complicated. The point is that the clans became the reality of Lebanon, and the Lebanese government became irrelevant. An agreement was reached between the factions and their patrons in 1989 that ended the internal fighting -- for the most part -- and strengthened the state. But in the end, the state existed at the forbearance of the clans. The map may show a nation, but it is really a country of microscopic clans engaged in a microscopic geopolitical struggle for security and power. Lebanon remains a country in which the warlords have become national politicians, but there is little doubt that their power comes from being warlords and that, under pressure, the clans will reassert themselves.

Syria's Geographic Challenge

Repeats in Syria and Iraq

A similar process has taken place in Syria. The arbitrary nation-state has become a region of competing clans. The Alawite clan, led by Bashar al Assad (who has played the roles of warlord and president), had ruled the country. An uprising supported by various countries threw the Alawites into retreat. The insurgents were also divided along multiple lines. Now, Syria resembles Lebanon. There is one large clan, but it cannot destroy the smaller ones, and the smaller ones cannot destroy the large clan. There is a permanent stalemate, and even if the Alawites are destroyed, their enemies are so divided that it is difficult to see how Syria can go back to being a country, except as a historical curiosity. Countries like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United States might support various clans, but in the end, the clans survive.
Something very similar happened in Iraq. As the Americans departed, the government that was created was dominated by Shia, who were fragmented. To a great degree, the government excluded the Sunnis, who saw themselves in danger of marginalization. The Sunnis consisted of various tribes and clans (some containing Shiites) and politico-religious movements like the Islamic State. They rose up in alliance and have now left Baghdad floundering, the Iraqi army seeking balance and the Kurds scrambling to secure their territory.
It is a three-way war, but in some ways it is a three-way war with more than 20 clans involved in temporary alliances. No one group is strong enough to destroy the others on the broader level. Sunni, Shiite and Kurd have their own territories. On the level of the tribes and clans, some could be destroyed, but the most likely outcome is what happened in Lebanon: the permanent power of the sub-national groups, with perhaps some agreement later on that creates a state in which power stays with the smaller groups, because that is where loyalty lies.
The boundary between Lebanon and Syria was always uncertain. The border between Syria and Iraq is now equally uncertain. But then these borders were never native to the region. The Europeans imposed them for European reasons. Therefore, the idea of maintaining a united Iraq misses the point. There was never a united Iraq -- only the illusion of one created by invented kings and self-appointed dictators. The war does not have to continue, but as in Lebanon, it will take the exhaustion of the clans and factions to negotiate an end.
The idea that Shia, Sunnis and Kurds can live together is not a fantasy. The fantasy is that the United States has the power or interest to re-create a Franco-British invention crafted out of the debris of the Ottoman Empire. Moreover, even if it had an interest, it is doubtful that the United States has the power to pacify Iraq and Syria. It could not impose calm in Lebanon. The triumph of the Islamic State would represent a serious problem for the United States, but no more than it would for the Shia, Kurds and other Sunnis. As in Lebanon, the multiplicity of factions creates a countervailing force that cripples those who reach too far.
There are two issues here. The first is how far the disintegration of nation-states will go in the Arab world. It seems to be under way in Libya, but it has not yet taken root elsewhere. It may be a political formation in the Sykes-Picot areas. Watching the Saudi peninsula will be most interesting. But the second issue is what regional powers will do about this process. Turkey, Iran, Israel and the Saudis cannot be comfortable with either this degree of fragmentation or the spread of more exotic groups. The rise of a Kurdish clan in Iraq would send tremors to the Turks and Iranians.
The historical precedent, of course, would be the rise of a new Ottoman attitude in Turkey that would inspire the Turks to move south and impose an acceptable order on the region. It is hard to see how Turkey would have the power to do this, plus if it created unity among the Arabs it would likely be because the memories of Turkish occupation still sting the Arab mind.
All of this aside, the point is that it is time to stop thinking about stabilizing Syria and Iraq and start thinking of a new dynamic outside of the artificial states that no longer function. To do this, we need to go back to Lebanon, the first state that disintegrated and the first place where clans took control of their own destiny because they had to. We are seeing the Lebanese model spread eastward. It will be interesting to see where else its spreads.

Will Judiciary proceed against Holy Cows of Pakistan?

Will Judiciary Proceed  against Holy Cows of Pakistan?

Court to probe 61 Pakistani Politicians including Nawaz, Shahbaz, Zardari, Imran for transferring wealth abroad

Saeed Minhas

Islamabad: Developments and twists are not unknown to Pakistani politics. The latest one in line is a simmering case under review at Lahore High Court to probe the alleged flight of money from Pakistan by none other than the top notch politicians of the country by industrialist turned politician and sitting prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, his younger brother and chief minister Punjab , Shahbaz Sharif, former President of Pakistan and co-chairperson of Peoples Party, Asif Zardari and chief of Pakistan Tehrik Insaaf (PTI), Imran Khan. 

Will a judiciary known for having a history of siding with the powerful (to allow itself to be overlooked for its internal weaknesses and corruption), be able to rise above its dirty past? More importantly the politically infested institutes like Federal Investigation Agency (FIA), Auditor General of Pakistan, Federal Board of Revenue and other such institutes be allowed to extend the details to the court or continue to play in tandem with corrupt political bosses (to help themselves to promotions and corruption)? 

Interestingly, this is first attempt at asking such high profile politicians to disclose their foreign assets but till to date no such attempts have been made to force the powerful and politically aligned federal and provincial bureaucracy (babucracy) of this country or for that matter the serving or retired Generals of Pakistan's army or serving and retired judges of the lower and higher judiciary of the country to disclose their foreign assets or foreign (dual) nationalities. 

But if this case against politicians is proceeded further by the judiciary, lets hope that one day other holy cows will be challenged as well. But mind you with this judiciary reeling under its own heaps of corruption and nepotism, the chances are slim but enough for patriots like us to hang on to and wish for the proceedings to go on.    (Saeed Minhas)

LAHORE: The Lahore High Court (LHC) on Friday decided to start ex parte proceedings against 61 politicians in relation to a case against alleged illegal transfer of assets to foreign countries.

Justice Ameenuddin made the call during the hearing of a petition filed by Advocate Javed Iqbal Jafree which said that prominent politicians including Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif, PTI chairman Imran Khan and former president Asif Ali Zardari had transferred their assets to foreign countries via illegal means.

The petition had requested the court to issue orders to bring the allegedly illegally transferred assets back to Pakistan.

The order disables the politicians who failed to submit their affidavits in response to the court's directive to declare their assets from defending themselves and will affect high profile politicians including the premier, the Punjab chief minister, Imran as well as PPP’s co-chairperson Zardari.

Earlier on September 2, only three out of the 64 initially directed had filed affidavits in this regard. These included Senator Aitzaz Ahsan, his wife Bushra Aitzaz and former chairman National Accountability Bureau (NAB) Qamar Zaman Chaudhry.

Know more: Foreign assets case: LHC issues notices to politicians

However, during today’s hearing, Advocate Jafree pointed out that Mr and Mrs Ahsan and the former NAB chairman had not submitted any details on the foreign assets they had in possession, following which the court ordered the three to file details of their foreign assets by the next hearing.

The court decided to begin ex parte proceedings against the politicians who had not submitted their assets' details and ordered Director General Federal Investigative Agency (FIA) Ghalib Ali Bandesha, Punjab Advocate General Hanif Khatana and Attorney General Salman Aslam Butt to submit an affidavit declaring details of the investigation that has taken place into the case so far.

The case was subsequently adjourned to September 29.

Earlier in June, the LHC had issued notices to politicians, including the prime minister, on a petition seeking directions for the politicians to bring their foreign assets back to Pakistan.

The Origins and Implications of the Scottish Referendum

Geopolitical Weekly

Tuesday, September 16, 2014 - 03:01

Stratfor

By George Friedman


The idea of Scottish independence has
moved from the implausible to the very possible. Whether or not it
actually happens, the idea that the union of England and Scotland, which
has existed for more than 300 years, could be dissolved has enormous
implications in its own right, and significant implications for Europe
and even for global stability.


The United Kingdom
was the center of gravity of the international system from the end of
the Napoleonic Wars until World War II. It crafted an imperial structure
that shaped not only the international system but also the internal
political order of countries as diverse as the United States and India.
The United Kingdom devised and drove the Industrial Revolution. In many
ways, this union was a pivot of world history. To realize it might be
dissolved is startling and reveals important things about the direction
of the world.


Scotland and England are historical enemies. Their sense of competing
nationhoods stretches back centuries, and their occupation of the same
island has caused them to fight many wars. Historically they have
distrusted each other, and each has given the other good reason for the
distrust. The national question was intertwined with dynastic struggles
and attempts at union imposed either through conquest or dynastic
intrigue. The British were deeply concerned that foreign powers,
particularly France, would use Scotland as a base for attacking England.
The Scots were afraid that the English desire to prevent this would
result in the exploitation of Scotland by England, and perhaps the
extinction of the Scottish nation.


The Union of 1707 was the result of acts of parliaments on both sides
and led to the creation of the Parliament of Great Britain. England's
motive was its old geopolitical fears. Scotland was driven more by
financial problems it was unable to solve by itself. What was created
was a united island, acting as a single nation. From an outsider's
perspective, Scotland and England were charming variations on a single
national theme -- the British -- and it was not necessary to consider
them as two nations. If there was ever a national distinction that one
would have expected to be extinguished in other than cultural terms, it
was this one. Now we learn that it is intact. We need a deeper
intellectual framework for understanding why Scottish nationalism has
persisted.

The Principle of National Self-Determination

The French Enlightenment and subsequent revolution had elevated the
nation to the moral center of the world. It was a rebellion against the
transnational dynasties and fragments of nations that had governed much
of Europe. The Enlightenment saw the nation, which it defined in terms
of shared language, culture and history, as having an inherent right to
self-determination and as the framework for the republican democracies
it argued were the morally correct form of government.


After the French Revolution, some nations, such as Germany and Italy,
united into nation-states. After World War I, when the Hapsburg,
Hohenzollern, Romanov and Ottoman empires all collapsed, a wave of
devolution took place in Europe. The empires devolved into their
national components. Some were amalgamated into one larger nation, such
as Yugoslavia or Czechoslovakia, while others, such as Poland, were
single nation-states. Some had republican democracies, others had
variations on the theme, and others were dictatorships. A second major
wave of devolution occurred in 1992, when the Soviet Union collapsed and
its constituent republics became independent nation-states.


The doctrine of the right to national self-determination drove the
first wave of revolts against European imperialism in the Western
Hemisphere, creating republics in the Americas. The second wave of
colonial rising and European withdrawal occurred after World War II. In
some cases, nations became self-determining. In other cases,
nation-states simply were invented without corresponding to any nation
and actually dividing many. In other cases, there were nations, but
republican democracy was never instituted except by pretense. A French
thinker, Francois de La Rochefoucauld, said, "Hypocrisy is the tribute
that vice pays to virtue." Even while betraying its principles, the
entire world could not resist the compulsion to embrace the principles
of national self-determination through republican democracy. This
effectively was codified as the global gold standard of national
morality in the charters of the League of Nations and then the United
Nations.

Click to Enlarge

The Imperfection of the Nation-State

The incredible power of the nation-state as a moral principle and
right could be only imperfectly imposed. No nation was pure. Each had
fragments and minorities of other nations. In many cases, they lived
with each other. In other cases, the majority tried to expel or even
destroy the minority nation. In yet other cases, the minority demanded
independence and the right to form its own nation-state. These conflicts
were not only internal; they also caused external conflict over the
right of a particular nation to exist or over the precise borders
separating the nations.


Europe in particular tore itself apart in wars between 1914 and 1945
over issues related to the rights of nation-states, with the idea of the
nation-state being taken to its reductio ad absurdum -- by the Germans
as a prime example. After the war, a principle emerged in Europe that
the borders as they stood, however imperfect, were not to be challenged.
The goal was to abolish one of the primary causes of war in Europe.


The doctrine was imperfectly applied. The collapse of the Soviet
Union abolished one set of borders, turning internal frontiers into
external borders. The Yugoslavian civil war turned into an international
war once Yugoslavia ceased to exist, and into civil wars within
nation-states such as Bosnia, Serbia and Croatia. At the same time, the
borders in the Caucasus were redrawn when newly independent Armenia
seized what had been part of Azerbaijan. And in an act that flew in the
face of the principle, NATO countries divided Serbia into two parts: an
Albanian part called Kosovo and the rest of Serbia.


The point of all this is to understand that the right to national
self-determination comes from deep within European principles and that
it has been pursued with an intensity and even viciousness that has torn
Europe apart and redrawn its borders. One of the reasons that the
European Union exists is to formally abolish these wars of national
self-determination by attempting to create a framework that both
protects and trivializes the nation-state.

Scotland's Case

The possibility of Scottish independence must be understood in this context. Nationalism, the remembrance and love of history and culture,
is not a trivial thing. It has driven Europe and even the world for
more than two centuries in ever-increasing waves. The upcoming Scottish
election, whichever way it goes, demonstrates the enormous power of the
desire for national self-determination. If it can corrode the British
union, it can corrode anything.


There are those who argue that Scottish independence could lead to
economic problems or complicate the management of national defense.
These are not trivial questions, but they are not what is at stake here.
From an economic point of view, it makes no sense for Scotland to
undergo this sort of turmoil. At best, the economic benefits are
uncertain. But this is why any theory of human behavior that assumes
that the singular purpose of humans is to maximize economic benefits is
wrong. Humans have other motivations that are incomprehensible to the
economic model but can be empirically demonstrated to be powerful. If
this referendum succeeds, it will still show that after more than 300
years, almost half of Scots prefer economic uncertainty to union with a
foreign nation.


This is something that must be considered carefully in a continent
that is prone to extreme conflicts and still full of borders that do not
map to nations as they are understood historically. Catalonia, whose
capital is Barcelona, the second-largest and most vibrant city in Spain,
has a significant independence movement.
The Treaty of Trianon divided Hungary so that some Hungarians live in
Romania, while others live in Slovakia. Belgium consists of French and
Dutch groups (Walloons and Fleming), and it is not too extreme to say
they detest each other. The eastern half of Poland was seized by the
Soviet Union and is now part of Ukraine and Belarus. Many Chechens and
Dagestanis want to secede from Russia, as do Karelians, who see
themselves as Finns. There is a movement in northern Italy to separate
its wealthy cities from the rest of Italy. The war between Azerbaijan
and Armenia is far from settled. Myriad other examples can be found in Europe alone.


The right to national self-determination is not simply about the
nation governing itself but also about the right of the nation to occupy
its traditional geography. And since historical memories of geography
vary, the possibility of conflict grows. Consider Ireland: After its
fight for independence from England and then Britain, the right to
Northern Ireland, whose national identity depended on whose memory was
viewing it, resulted in bloody warfare for decades.


Scottish independence would transform British history. All of the
attempts at minimizing its significance miss the point. It would mean
that the British island would be divided into two nation-states, and
however warm the feelings now, they were not warm in the past nor can we
be sure that they will be warm in the future. England will be
vulnerable in ways that it hasn't been for three centuries. And Scotland
will have to determine its future. The tough part of national
self-determination is the need to make decisions and live with them.


This is not an argument for or against Scottish nationhood. It is
simply drawing attention to the enormous power of nationalism in Europe
in particular, and in countries colonized by Europeans. Even Scotland
remembers what it once was, and many -- perhaps a majority and perhaps a
large minority -- long for its return. But the idea that Scotland
recalls its past and wants to resurrect it is a stunning testimony less
to Scottish history than to the Enlightenment's turning national rights
into a moral imperative that cannot be suppressed.


More important, perhaps, is that although Yugoslavia and the Soviet
collapse were not seen as precedents for the rest of Europe, Scotland
would be seen that way. No one can deny that Britain is an entity of
singular importance. If that can melt away, what is certain? At a time
when the European Union's economic crisis
is intense, challenging European institutions and principles, the
dissolution of the British union would legitimize national claims that
have been buried for decades.


But then we have to remember that Scotland was buried in Britain for
centuries and has resurrected itself. This raises the question of how
confident any of us can be that national claims buried for only decades
are settled. I have no idea how the Scottish will vote. What strikes me
as overwhelmingly important is that the future of Britain is now on the
table, and there is a serious possibility that it will cease to be in
the way it was. Nationalism has a tendency to move to its logical
conclusion, so I put little stock in the moderate assurances of the
Scottish nationalists. Nor do I find the arguments against secession
based on tax receipts or banks' movements compelling. For centuries,
nationalism has trumped economic issues. The model of economic man may
be an ideal to some, but it is empirically false. People are interested
in economic well-being, but not at the exclusion of all else. In this
case, it does not clearly outweigh the right of the Scottish nation to
national-self determination.


I think that however the vote goes, unless the nationalists are
surprised by an overwhelming defeat, the genie is out of the bottle, and
not merely in Britain. The referendum will re-legitimize questions that
have caused much strife throughout the European continent for
centuries, including the 31-year war of the 20th century that left 80
million dead.

Read more: The Origins and Implications of the Scottish Referendum | Stratfor

Power Without Responsibility

Power without Responsibility

Media is often considered fourth pillar of a state. It is commonly believed that it has to work as a watchdog for all those vulnerable and marginalised communities whom every state is constitutionally and morally responsible to listen to, cater to and help them live a decent life. But is that happening? The resounding NO we can hear from the communities is a cause of, both, concern and action. When a watchdog gets compromised, especially the one who has become trigger happy and part of daily life of people, the concern is genuine and needs our immediate and focused attention.

Training, capacity buildings, policy dialogues and what not has been used in the recent years to bring the media towards its stated role of educate, inform, entertain and build opinions independently of any influence. But the fact remains that commercially driven media houses are more interested in doing all these things to build opinions for their own ends. Result is we can see pro-this and pro-that kind of media hence the status quo remains intact.

There is no denying the fact that visual impact is having far more impact on its viewers than the print world or even the airwaves of radio used to have. Blog sphere has also emerged in the recent past to counter the influence of visual masters (TV Houses) but its limitation in developing or under developed countries is not having as huge an impact as is needed to counter the visual impact of TV and media houses. Available ICT platforms like Vimeo, Youtube, Facebook, Tumblr, Twitter and what not are there but still the TV's agenda setting role controls the public sphere.

Obviously, someone has to fill the empty public sphere and media with a Mic is doing that. So whats the fuss all about? That's the question, I often hear when i try to explain the agenda setting role of media houses in countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Kenya and other countries like these developing democracies. 

As I have mentioned the watchdog's concept above, just imagine that when the watchdog can be bought by the powerful elite to ensure that status quo of power remains tilted towards them. Be it budget formation, education, access to information, health or other fundamental rights of the people, it should be given a spin to ensure that public sphere should remain cloudy, dusty and dirty to let the ruling elite continue with corruption and incompetence. 

Now what can we do, we need to develop platforms where public sphere can be snatched back from aides and abettors of power elites so that real people can develop a trust within themselves and their communities that "YES They will be heard, noticed and their voices will bring a change." 

How we can do that needs a vision, a mission and a passion. Of course we can do it and believe me it will be such a contributing factor which may not earn anything for any organisation but credibility, enabling environment for all our aims and goals and a room where ultimately the policy makers will refer to for amending their practices, policies and power relationship with real people/communities.  

Agenda SettingPublic SphereMediaCommunitiesInequalityPower elitesEducationHealthFundamental Rights

Historical and Mystical lands of Indus Valley

Huge tracts of lands with hardly anyone to come across gives you the impression that you have entered a deserted province as soon as you venture outside the hustling and bustling port city of Karachi towards interior of Sindh. It was my first trip to interior of Sindh after the devastating floods of 2010 and 2011. Though it was not related to floods or DRR anymore rather it was about a project funded by EU and manned by Oxfam Novib (ON) with the help of two local partners (IRC & RDF) and one international partner (BFW). Since the project is unique in the sense that it was neither half cooked nor is it one way traffic like many others I have come across in recent past. That’s why it attracted my most attention and the feeling was awesome because it was aimed at really empowering the youth and craftswomen of a province which seems to have invested so heavily in its few urban centers while completely ignoring the teeming youth and female artisans.

Anyway before giving you more details about the Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) project and its EQUATE component, let me narrate you a bit about the land, its people, its crafts and all the fairytales attached to this land known by names like Valley of Mehran, Indus Valley, citadel of Indus civilization and most recently Sindhu desh.
But just like history of Sindh—dating as far back as to 3000BC—which has changed like the constantly patterns of shifting sands, the bumpy but continuous National Highway takes you through various topographies, historical places of archival value, remains of the oldest civilization, mystical Goths (villages), stand-out shrines. But it’s not a journey for a weak hearted because every inch of this great land you will have to come across staggering poverty. Since the life source of this entire valley, River Indus had swelled out of its banks in many parts of interior Sindh, therefore, finding submerged houses rather entire muddy villages, and hunger-stricken young and old souls looking at you with a searching blinking eyes as if you have come to tell them some good news or some good place to get some food, shelter or fodder for their remaining cattle. And if by any chance you have read some writers like Al Beruni (Kitabul Hind)--a Persian historian--you just cannot resist the feeling that you are passing through the citadel of many glorious rajas, maharajas, Sufis, mystic folklores, and of course the mighty Indus.
Especially while passing through the barren lands laid down like a patterned carpet on both side of the snaky National Highway en-route to Hyderabad, it’s hard not to recall to mind Kitabul Hind in which Beruni has described not only the civilizations of Mehran Valley (also known as Indus Valley) but has given detailed description of the land, its people, their living standards and great rulers who controlled it since 3000 BC. It http://www.equatepak.org/index.php/blog/32-historical-and-mystical-lands-of-indus-valleyis not very often that you have to re-live the history by being there where once Turks,Pashtuns, Mughals. Habbari, Soomra, Samma, Arghun and Baloch dynasties ruled. Amidst all this how can we all ignore the Abbasyid and Ummayid taking over the reign of this great land to establish their Islamic sultanate and control its rich resources and diversified population towards middle of eighth century? Though in our school days, we did not come across that face of Sindh’s history as all we were taught to memorize by heart at the mat-schools of Kashmir and then in Punjab that Sindh’s history starts with the landing of Mohammad Bin Qasim in 712 when he came to end the miseries of the hapless people only after hearing the cry of a virgin lady who was supposedly kidnapped by the local Hindu Raja. Without going into the merits and demerits of such a lopsided curriculum or educationists, what I recalled to my mind while passing by (and stopping for a while as well) the shrines of great Sufi revolutionist Lal Shahbaz Qalandar, Sachal Sarmast or even Shah Abdul Latif Bhitai and Jhulay Lal. Indepenent historians have recorded a huge influx of all these legendary figures into Sindh soon after Abbasyids captured Sindh in their quest for more power and more resources.
--To be continued--

When the Watchdog becomes a Dog: The UN Strain from The Economist

Cholera in Haiti

The UN strain

Jul 15th 2013, 11:36 by P.B. | NEW YORK

ON JULY 5th the United Nations refused, again, to countenance the claims of 5,000 cholera-affected Haitians against it. The Haitians contend that grossly inadequate sanitation at a UN peacekeeping base introduced and spread the disease through the country’s waterways. The great weight of scientific evidence is on their side. The claimants seek millions of dollars in damages, installation of a sanitation network, and an apology.
In a letter to members of the United States Congress who had urged the UN to take responsibility for the cholera outbreak, Ban Ki Moon, the UN's secretary-general, reiterated that the UN’s legal office has decided the claims are “not receivable” because of the UN’s privileges and immunities. The UN has offered little insight into its reasoning, except that consideration of the claims would involve a review of “political and policy matters”. That statement has only raised more questions, including whether “dumping disease-laden waste water in rivers is UN policy,” as a reporter asked at a press briefing last week.
Critics argue that the UN’s stance is tantamount to claiming impunity—that the UN, an organisation whose mission involves promoting the rule of law, is putting itself above it. The Haitians’ lawyers now plan to sue the UN in Haitian and United States courts. If a court decides to hear the claims, the case could have far-reaching implications for peacekeeping practices around the world.
The disease was not documented in Haiti until October 2010, and even as the first perilously dehydrated patients arrived at hastily assembled clinics, reporters discovered filthy conditions at a nearby UN peacekeeping base. From broken pipes and waste pits, sewage trickled and sometimes flowed into a tributary of one of Haiti’s major rivers. Since then, many scientific studies have provided strong support for the hypothesis that Haiti’s cholera strain came from Nepal. (The latest is a DNA sequencing study, published in July, which traced Haiti’s cholera strain to Nepal.) A Nepali contingent of officers staffed the peacekeeping base at the time of the outbreak
The bacterium, meanwhile, has killed nearly 8,200 Haitians and made unwell close to 665,000, about 7% of the population. Waterborne diseases spread fast in Haiti because the country lacks proper sewerage. The rainy season is especially problematic, and although Tropical Storm Chantal did not make a direct hit on Haiti last week, the additional rain will probably cause cholera cases to spike.
The UN has staunchly refused to entertain the cholera claims in any venue. Its letter to the claimants’ lawyers eschewed their proposals to meet, engage a mediator, or establish an alternative venue to hear the complaints. Whereas Mr Ban’s letter to congressmen said that “the majority of [the] recommendations” made by a UN panel of experts to avoid future epidemics were being implemented, a report by a United States-based non-proft group in May found that five of the seven recommendations were only partially implemented, or not at all. And although the UN launched an initiative to fight cholera in Haiti in January 2012, the programme is already falling short: Mr Ban's letter stated that pledges for the cholera initiated amounted to $207m, $31m less than the UN said would be available last December. It is another failure that by now will hardly surprise the people of Haiti.
Correction: This post originally stated that the $207m the UN had raised in pledges for cholera in Haiti was $31m less than was required. In fact, $207m is $31m less than the UN said would be available last December. This was corrected on July 15th.

Guddi Baji, Makhdooms squabbling over Ephedrine share

Guddi Baji , Makhdooms squabbling over Ephedrine share

M RAYYAN AHMED

RAWALPINDI: Long arm of the law seems to move at a snail’s pace when it comes to elitist ruling families of the country but it moves like a bullet train for the ordinary man even of their life and death matter is at stake and one such example in this regard is the seven billion rupees Ephedrine case which involved a convicted former prime minister Yusuf Raza Gilani and power thirsty Makhdooms Shahbuddin and of course their families. ANF court on Saturday issued an order to both the Gilanis’ and Makhdooms to submit in writing details of their assets and the sources of income to justify those assets. Both the families are custodians of shrines belonging to their revered forefathers since British raj days thus holding huge tracts of lands in Multan and Rahim Yar Khan respectively. We have recently seen Makhdoom of Hala Sharif; Amin Fahim coming out of the insurance company scam stating innocently that he did not know how millions of rupees ended up in his wife and his accounts while dealing with the NICL issue during his days in ministry. But the issue here is not licensing like Amin Fahim had to deal with but issue here is issuance of 9500kgs of precious drug like Ephedrine, which is primarily used as a Chinese herb for treatment of shortness of breath and increasing the flow of blood in various organs of the body. According to the details so far revealed in the court by two of the approvers, out of 17 accused in this case, 2500kgs were issued on verbal orders of Makhdoom Shahbuddin while the rest has been manipulated by Guddi Baji and his sons by using the influence of her husband who happened to be the prime minister of the country. The excessive quotas, in violation of the International Narcotics Control Board (INCB) were issued around 2010. But Anti Narcotics Force (ANF) did not raise any eyebrow on this violation of
the book until they were reminded by the higher judiciary to find out that how huge quotas were issued to two companies? The companies involved, as per the prime witnesses, are Danas Pharmaceutical and Berlex Lab International. Both are learnt to have not only strong Multan connection but had moved through the good private offices of Guddi Baji where her two sons Musa Gilani and Qadir Gilani--the later being also the son in law of Pir of Pagaro Sharif-- were operating as facilitators for such financers. Guddi Baji is the pet name of Fauzia Gilani because most of the socialite and business circles used to revere by calling her by this name instead of taking her real name, informed many witnesses who has seen the private galore of the Baji in her hey days, while living in Hussnain Construct Companies donated houses of Lahore, their ancestral houses and newly built villas in Multan or in the hilly serene atmospheres of Capital. But the buck does not seem to be
stopping here. Lately, our entrenched sources confirmed that Makhdooms' and Gilanis’ have developed some differences over the share of the alleged loot supposedly dumped upon them by the ANF court. ANF records show that Makhdooms ancestral lands in Rahim Yar Khan and his 22 bank accounts have been put on hold till the final verdict of the case. Makhdooms are concerned with these developments because now Multan DCO has also been asked to provide details of all their moveable and immoveable assets to ANF court. Though they have moved to Lahore High court for claiming back these lands stating that these huge lands which gives them multifold advantages ranging from political clout to Peer sahib’s status have all come to him through inheritance from his forefathers, therefore, should not be put under ANF control or attached with Ephedrine case. Now Gilanis’ have been asked to furnish their assets and sources, Makhdooms are feeling some comfort but
still want Gilanis to ascertain the share proportions. Sources confirmed that both have paid a good chunk of their share to “Addi” a revered lady from Larkana with a blood relation to Presidency. Gilanis, who already have the distinction of earning the title of first MBBS (Mian Biwi Bachon Samait, meaning literally husband, wife, kids all involved) family who remained in the PM house for the longest of time as elected chief executive are looking to use Pir of Pagaro’s connection to hush-hush the matter for the time being. Pir Pagaro is related to Gilanis because Qadir Gilani is married to the granddaughter of Pagaro. Remember, Pagaro sain is in league with the Muslim League these days. So will this entire episode be a dog-tail spin or will it be rounded off just like Makhdoom Amin Fahim had to return one transaction of many shoddy deals to ensure that nothing else is probed? No one knows for sure because besides having all the right connections at the right places and knowing very well that birds of feather flock together, superior judiciary remains the question mark for all the striped-Zebras from across the political divide. Yet, sources believe that Makhdooms want to sort out the share issue before it gets too late and even the League connections might back out fearing the superior judiciary. But as the cards are unfolding, message from Presidency has been sent to both the involved parties that they should sort out their own mess without looking towards Larkana’s revered lady, who has just returned to the house from the same seat which happens to be the political citadel of Bhutto including late Benazir Bhutto. Will they or will they not remains a question now for a Presidency which knows very well that all their immunities are going to die out by coming September when the term of the President’s office expires. Keep your fingers crossed and eyes open to see the developments and read them here.

German special envoy for AfPak arrives to cure Doha talks curse

Saeed Minhas 

ISLAMABAD: Another high profile dignitary from the gang of four (Britain, German, Norwegian and Americans) has dropped in Islamabad on the heels of British Prime Minister David Cameron's recent visit to ensure that Pakistan push forward the stalled reconciliation talks between the US and Taliban in Doha.

Talks were halted because of Taliban's use of their emblem and flag in their recently opened formal office in Doha, Qatar on June 20. Though both the flags and emblem of Taliban have been removed from the office by Qatari police but in the meanwhile Pakistan and Afghanistan have locked horns over the vital issue of Taliban's presence in Afghan government.
With the deadline for drawdown of NATO forces looming closer, Americans are finding it hard to find a reasonable way out. Americans' mistrust with Pakistan seems to have taken a back seat for the time being but as many diplomats believe that the undertones can still be felt all around both the countries. “It’s not only Drones strikes but it is also about the role India is trying to grab in the post withdrawal Afghanistan,” commented a senior official at the ministry of foreign affairs.
Afghan government stuffed with people from northern alliance seems to have a special liking for India; a notion which Pakistan is unable to digest despite helping Americans and other members if the reconciliatory gang in orchestrating the Doha talks. A senior establishment is Khaki establishment believes that “we are no more India centric but at the same time we just cannot ignore our strategic interests.” From strategic depth to strategic interests is considered a major shift by many Pakistani observers. But with India pushing for an extra mile in Afghanistan even these observers fear that Pakistani establishment might have to take a turn if this approach is not revisited by Afghans and their mentors especially the gang of four trying to broker a face saving deal for Americans and their supreme fighting force of NATO.
Latest in the flurry of high profile visitors is the German special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Ambassador Michael Koch, who called on the Adviser to Prime Minister on National Security and Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz.
Our sources confirmed that German ambassador Koch had meetings and briefings with several high profile officials in an effort to calm down the recent spate of accusations flying across Pak Afghan border. The meeting on display was of Sartaj Aziz, because after all these visiting dignitaries want to show off their love for a democratic government. The meetings not on display however are learnt to have taken up the vital issue of talks, withdrawal and of course the post withdrawal scenarios, informed the sources.
Officially, media was informed that during Sartaj-Koch meeting, bilateral relations and regional situation, including latest developments in Afghanistan, were discussed. Ambassador Michael Koch was also quoted by the officials as saying that “Germany is fully committed to strengthening bilateral relations particularly economic and trade relations with Pakistan.”
In the regional context, Koch has appreciated Pakistan’s role in facilitating the reconciliation process in Afghanistan as part of efforts to promote regional peace and stability. The Adviser reiterated Pakistan’s desire to work closely for consolidation of bilateral relations and partnership with Germany in all spheres of cooperation, especially for the expansion of trade and investment.
Despite all these official cyclostyled statements, the reality is that Germany has been one of the few players in the Afghan game who has been trying to bring Taliban on talking table. Norwegians have also played some distant role in this process whereby Americans were given options and assessments to decide the drawdown, its strategy and post withdrawal scenarios. Britain’s back stage role has always been there throughout these efforts to ensure that its second commandment on the world stage is not threatened. 

Dr Imran Farooq Murder case: Altaf shows Karachi Card to visiting Cameron

Altaf welcomes David Cameron with his Karachi Card

Dr Imran Farooq Murder case:

Saeed Minhas

Investigations by New Scotland Yard into the murder of MQM founder member Dr Imran Farooq seems to be giving cold feet to many not only in Britain but also in Pakistan as some of the associates of MQM Chief Altaf Hussain has put the name of former interior minister Rehman Malik for giving millions of dollars and UK currency to their party chief which somehow remained stashed under the floor and inside the walls of the party office when police raided the party’s offices and some houses back in 2010.

Sources further revealed that besides the recent 55 hour search of Altaf Hussain and another flat, which allegedly belong to Raza Haroon—another MQM stalwart who was raised under the shadows of his mentor and party chief Altaf Hussain in London—British Police had raided some other properties including some purported offices of MQM in 2010 as well. They believe that during those searches, British police had found bundles of cash stashed under the floor and in the walls. Upon investigations, British police was informed that the money was sent from time to time by party workers. One of the close associate of Altaf Hussain even disclosed to the police in the heat of moment that money was brought in by the visiting interior minister of that time Rehman Malik. The one who disclosed this was recently thrown out of the party’s coordination committee but only after receiving good thrashing from the party workers, revealed Pakistani officials.

Pakistani authorities working on this case believe that the 52 year British national of Pakistani origin arrested recently is believed to be the mastermind behind the murder of Dr Imran. British Police, however, has not yet framed any of these charges against him as of today. But Pakistan officials who are familiar with the case revealed to The Spokesman that British police was led to the arrest of this man by Pakistani authorities. “We gleaned this information from the two suspects arrested last year from Karachi and instead of handing them over to Britain asked the British police to investigate to nab the real culprits not the scapegoats from Pakistan,” they added.

Pakistani authorities have also asked the British Police to give proper protection to the widow of Dr Imran Farooq besides proposing them to give asylum to her entire family living still in Karachi. “If they are serious than they have to protect her and her family to get the real picture of the murder case, otherwise, she has effectively been silenced since murder of her husband,” disclosed the Pakistani investigators.

Meanwhile, Self-exiled chief of Mutehida Qaumi Movement, a British national of Pakistani origin, Altaf Hussain has once again turned to his power cluster in Karachi for thwarting another attempt on his fiefdom. This time his outcry was neither against a military operation nor against any Pakistani political opponent but was aimed to stun his protectors; Britain. To avoid another commotion and even thrashing, Altaf Hussain’s party leaders have already started calling the recent surge in investigations and raids on the house of Altaf Hussain a media trial. “They all know if they can face kicks and punches from party workers for merely not reacting in a timely fashion over Imran Khan’s statement against their party chief after the May elections than they better raise their voices now in time before it’s too late for them,” revealed a former MQM leader who calls himself lucky to be alive even after quitting the party.

Keeping calm over a raid by the British Police on his house situated at Edgware Road in central London for almost a week, Altaf Hussain chose the appropriate moment to register his reaction and show of power, observed many pundits here. British Prime Minister, David Cameron was in Pakistan and there could not have been a better opportunity than this to show him that any independent inquiry into Dr Imran Farooq’s case would force him to use Karachi Card even against British interests, revealed some diplomatic sources to this scribe.

Pakistani security officials who have long been dealing with the MQM factor inside Pakistan believe that recent moves of New Scotland Yard with regard to murder investigations of Dr Imran Farooq are fishy. Informed sources seeking anonymity revealed that Pakistan had arrested two suspects, whom British intelligence has been watching since the murder took place in September 2010. Pakistani authorities nabbed both the suspects upon their arrival in Karachi but after initial investigations found out that both of them were not involved in the murder conspiracy or act. Therefore, sources revealed that they had informed the British authorities that these two would not be handed over to them. Finding consistent calls from the British Police officials, Pakistan had to sight them that there was no extradition treaty under which two suspects could be handed over to Britain.

However, Pakistani officials privy to the developments believe that there was a time during these demands and refusals period when Pakistan had to tell some British officials in private that these two could not be handed over as scapegoats and instead British Police should look for the real culprit. “We had informed them about all the information gleaned from these two suspects who revealed that the real suspect is either in Canada or in South Africa,” confided a highly placed source involved with the investigations. They believe that the 52 year old British national of Pakistani origin arrested on June 24 by British Metropolitan police is considered the real man in this case. “Now we are looking forward that how Police in Britain would extract the information from him to get hold of all those involved in murder of Dr Imran Farooq,” he added with a visible question mark in his eyes.

Diplomatic Bubbles: Doha Talks debacle as poddles helping salvage US pride

Doha Talks debacle 

Saeed Minhas 

Britain, Norway and Germany are all making sure that derailed peace talks with the Afghan Taliban resumes sooner than later to chalk out if nothing else than a roadmap for exit of NATO forces from a war torn country and save any further humiliation to the master blaster of the world; the US.

Having passed the buck of fighting to half-backed Afghan National Army (ANA) a few weeks back, NATO commanders are already busy overseeing the dismantling and destruction of their immovable structures and even weapons. What no one knows though is that will they be asked to pack up and leave in the middle of night like Russians did in 1989 or can they afford to get a guard of honour send-off—without the chance of any sleeper cell or inside attack.
This uncertainty is certainly doing more harm to the morale of the remaining NATO/US forces than any good, remarked one of the senior security officials while talking to this scribe from Kabul. “It’s not only the army but even the general population and almost over a decade-old Karzai government which is equally perturbed over uncertain future especially after the humiliation Afghans and US had to face in Doha,” he commented. “It will be a big lie if we say that Taliban have not gained even from these stalled talks,” he asserted. Adding he said that though President Obama has himself become involved in this process but the fact remains that Americans faced a double jeopardy and both coming not from their adversaries but from their puppets; one in Kabul and other one in Qatar.
With the Taliban offensive on the rise in Afghanistan and ANA left on its own to deal with the rise in insurgency, dwindling fortunes of peace talks in Doha has put the entire region on high alert. As foreign diplomats in Kabul suggest that the region in itself is alive to all the possible outcomes after the proposed pull out of Americans and NATO forces by mid 2014. To understand what regional countries might be expecting after this much hyped withdrawal of foreign troops from war torn country, this scribe had to talk many diplomats and security analysts in Pakistan and Afghanistan. One thing was for sure that none wanted to say anything on record despite the fact that none had any clue as to what might be in the store for all the regional countries and the departing fighters.
“One thing is for sure that Pakistan will no more be able to remote control the country where once ISI used to call the shots between 1979 and 2005,” remarked one European diplomat based in Kabul. He was of the view that if not more countries than at least a troika of China, India and Pakistan will be there to battle it out between themselves to control an ethnically divided Afghanistan in the post draw down days. “China is a surprise for many but with their heavy investment in copper, precious metals and stones, they are there for sure,” he added.
Talking to some operatives working on Pakistani side of the troubled region it revealed that Chinese and Americans are out there like flies in those lands which they otherwise call as lawless section of Pakistan.  “They are there with bagful of dollars to buy out any information which can lead them to any influential TTP man,” he added. Journalists in those areas also endorsed this view because they say that for the first time they are finding Chinese equally engaged in digging out information and informers. Otherwise, they say that it used to be either the plainclothesmen of Pakistani agencies or the bearded Pashto speaking Americans who used to flock the region and pay handsomely to the journalists for any piece of information which they believed was of some value. Though Pakistani operatives chip in to this information hungry atmosphere with their own loaded typical version; Indian involvement in FATA and beyond. They believe that India is not involved in this region to find out that what next plan is being hatched for their lands and secondly that how many out there are heading to pose them a threat in their held Kashmir. ‘Therefore, Indians are not only pumping in money but also doling out Russian and Chinese Kalashnikovs to their nurtured contacts either to keep these mercenaries away from their lands/Kashmir or use them for their targeted objectives against Pakistan,” added the senior military official.
With Cameron in Pakistan posing as harbinger of goodwill and business opportunities, Britain is already out there to actively do what many western analysts call a lap dog service for Americans. But Norwegians and Germans are equally trying their bit to bring the peace talks back on track, even for a photo op. “After all they have done it so many times in the past for Americans by bringing together Palestinians and Israelis and they are hopeful that they will do it again for the Americans. An exasperated American administration, which already has its hands glued deeply in many springs ranging from Tunisia, Egypt to Syria, they want Taliban back on the table at any cost. “Even talks without any pre conditions and outcome will be the first and foremost demand of the Americans right now,” agreed a European diplomat based in Islamabad. “It’s not only the repute but even the safe exit of over 100000 troops from Afghanistan is at stake,” added another Arab diplomat.
Just few weeks back, the entire diplomatic corps in Islamabad was talking very highly about these talks considering them the right step in the right direction and that too at the right time. Many of the ambassadors were skeptical about the outcome but still were hopeful that this will help break the ice and kick start a process which eventually might lead to some manageable solutions for the war torn Afghanistan in particular and for the region in general.
Usual knee jerk reactions from Afghan president Hamid Karzai was less of a botheration for these foreign emissaries because they believed that Karzai just want to remain relevant to this new transition in a country where after almost a decade of rule he himself has become completely irrelevant to the people, the negotiators and even the NATO and US. Not because he will not be running for the next presidential elections due next April but for the sordid stories of corruption surrounding him and his family members. More so because of his complete failure to give any governance to a country where on average 150 billion dollars were raining from all sides (more from US) throughout the past decade. However, the initial deadlock dampened their hopes a bit but still they believe that talks would resume one way or the other.

Mushay Trial: Is it a trap for the ruling party?

Saeed Minhas 

http://thespokesman.pk/index.php/history/item/6491-mushay-trial-is-it-a-trap-for-the-ruling-party

Islamabad: Enough of debate and discourse has taken place both inside the parliament house and outside by our farishtey and chirya famed journalists on mini screens but the music for former dictator Gen. Musharraf has actually begun.

Anti terrorism court has summoned 15 witnesses to record their statements in the judges’ detention case, while cases like Benazir murder case and Bugti’s killing are waiting in the wings for the former commando. Above all the high treason case is the one which has attracted the most attention from all and sundry. It is bothersome not only for a fragile democracy of the country, the foreign guarantors and the powerful institution of the country. Yet the real nemesis of the dictator, the Lord Judge and his comrades continues to push hard for eking out a high treason case out of the cautious government of Nawaz League.

Besides the latest news that three lawyers refused to record their statement at Pervaiz Musharraf’s Chak Shahzad farmhouse that was declared as a sub-jail by the court in judges’ detention case, there are three simultaneous theories filling the Capital these days?

First let me inform you that our sources have confirmed that three lawyers namely; Wajid Gilani, Fazlur Rehman Niazi and Anwar Khan have turned down the option of going to the Chak Shahzad farmhouse where currently Musharraf is being held. They believed that instead of going to dictator’s house to record their statements they would rather go to Adiala Jail or a local court in Islamabad for their statements. Coupled to this development is information emanating from Musharraf’s camp that the lawyer who had actually lodged the FIR in police station against Musharraf for detention of judges, (Ghuman) has become a high demand buy out these days. He was offered Rs 20 million according to some insiders. Since the money bags sent by Musharraf is learnt to have vanished midway in the closets of a mediator, therefore, Ghuman has now been promised to get double the amount to keep his promised stance of withdrawing the basic application.

Nevertheless, the theories, or you may call them conspiracy theories making rounds in Capital are; 1-Is it a trap for Mian Nawaz Sharif? 2-Will army protects its former boss? 3-Are foreign guarantors going to jump into arena?

The first of the three theories is not given more weight by many political pundits but many in the farishtey(secret agencies) community believe that the newly elected prime minister is being pushed to lock his horns with an internally divided institute; i.e. Army. They argue that given the past of Nawaz League and the language its hawks like Chaudhry Nisar, Khawaja Asif and even to some extent Saad Rafiq have been using against retired generals, DHA and even the nexus between Malik Riaz and Generals dealing only in real Estates has forced Mian Sahb to announce initiation of the high treason case against Musharraf. As history will tell us that amongst many others Saad Rafiq was leading figure spotted amongst hundreds of others who stormed the Supreme Court during the second tenure of Nawaz League. Chaudhry Nisar has recently voiced his concern over the performance of army in Balochistan during his visit to Quaid’s residency after the fateful incident.

Whether it will prove a trap for Mian Nawaz Sharif or not cannot be determined solely on the basis of these hawks, many doves within League remarked. They argue that though Mahmood Khan Achakzai had tried to give a rationale in the first sitting of the national Assembly but after due diligence, the leadership has decided to go ahead with this. The leadership, these doves believe, understand that a weakened army at this point in time might not be in a position to walk in the high offices on the hill top with the help of triple one brigade. They further said that even the guarantors have not given any clue as to what should be done in this case. These leaders of League believe party leadership wants to establish for once that army should serve under the democratic leadership while staying within their barracks. They even said that Mian sahb wants to bring DHA’s and other corporations owned by military under democratic accountability.

As for the internal division of the army is considered, it remains a very tricky question for many analysts. They believe that army is in a constant state of war for almost past 12 years. More importantly, they are dealing with an international issue where it’s not a matter of dollars anymore rather it has become more a matter of relevance for them. The way things are shaping up in Afghanistan and the way Indians and even Chinese are gearing up to fill the vacuums likely to be created after the withdrawal of NATO boots; army seems more engaged in their own survival. Therefore, many inside the League believe that chances of them coming for the rescue of the jailed dictator might not arise. This confidence of the Leaguers, however, is strongly rebutted by many in the intelligence world because they believe that such a case would open such a Pandora’s Box where many serving and even retired army generals and many sitting and even retired judges of the vibrant judiciary might have to stand in the dock for their dirty deeds of the past. They argue that the same reasons which are considered a roadblock for the army to take over at this point apply to the political dispensation of this country. They are not operating in ideal conditions or in a vacuum, therefore, they too have to understanding eh dynamics of evolving situations on our borders which is threatening not only army as an institution but even the country as an entity, they emphasized.

As for the guarantors are concerned, many observers remarked that they only come into play once the politicians, Khakis and now even Courts would come to a make or break situation. They cite Mian Nawz Sharif’s case in this regard where Saudis did not intervene until Musharraf had ensured that he will get a life sentence from the same judges who later became one of the main reasons for his downfall. So the game is on and all the options seems to be on the table for all the stakeholders at this point in time and all we can do is to wait and watch the proceedings and twists as and when they are applied and appear in public domain.

http://thespokesman.pk/index.php/history/item/6491-mushay-trial-is-it-a-trap-for-the-ruling-party