Doha Talks debacle
Saeed Minhas
Having passed the buck of fighting to half-backed Afghan National Army
(ANA) a few weeks back, NATO commanders are already busy overseeing the
dismantling and destruction of their immovable structures and even
weapons. What no one knows though is that will they be asked to pack up
and leave in the middle of night like Russians did in 1989 or can they
afford to get a guard of honour send-off—without the chance of any
sleeper cell or inside attack.
This uncertainty is certainly doing more harm to the morale of the remaining NATO/US forces than any good, remarked one of the senior security officials while talking to this scribe from Kabul. “It’s not only the army but even the general population and almost over a decade-old Karzai government which is equally perturbed over uncertain future especially after the humiliation Afghans and US had to face in Doha,” he commented. “It will be a big lie if we say that Taliban have not gained even from these stalled talks,” he asserted. Adding he said that though President Obama has himself become involved in this process but the fact remains that Americans faced a double jeopardy and both coming not from their adversaries but from their puppets; one in Kabul and other one in Qatar.
With the Taliban offensive on the rise in Afghanistan and ANA left on its own to deal with the rise in insurgency, dwindling fortunes of peace talks in Doha has put the entire region on high alert. As foreign diplomats in Kabul suggest that the region in itself is alive to all the possible outcomes after the proposed pull out of Americans and NATO forces by mid 2014. To understand what regional countries might be expecting after this much hyped withdrawal of foreign troops from war torn country, this scribe had to talk many diplomats and security analysts in Pakistan and Afghanistan. One thing was for sure that none wanted to say anything on record despite the fact that none had any clue as to what might be in the store for all the regional countries and the departing fighters.
“One thing is for sure that Pakistan will no more be able to remote control the country where once ISI used to call the shots between 1979 and 2005,” remarked one European diplomat based in Kabul. He was of the view that if not more countries than at least a troika of China, India and Pakistan will be there to battle it out between themselves to control an ethnically divided Afghanistan in the post draw down days. “China is a surprise for many but with their heavy investment in copper, precious metals and stones, they are there for sure,” he added.
Talking to some operatives working on Pakistani side of the troubled region it revealed that Chinese and Americans are out there like flies in those lands which they otherwise call as lawless section of Pakistan. “They are there with bagful of dollars to buy out any information which can lead them to any influential TTP man,” he added. Journalists in those areas also endorsed this view because they say that for the first time they are finding Chinese equally engaged in digging out information and informers. Otherwise, they say that it used to be either the plainclothesmen of Pakistani agencies or the bearded Pashto speaking Americans who used to flock the region and pay handsomely to the journalists for any piece of information which they believed was of some value. Though Pakistani operatives chip in to this information hungry atmosphere with their own loaded typical version; Indian involvement in FATA and beyond. They believe that India is not involved in this region to find out that what next plan is being hatched for their lands and secondly that how many out there are heading to pose them a threat in their held Kashmir. ‘Therefore, Indians are not only pumping in money but also doling out Russian and Chinese Kalashnikovs to their nurtured contacts either to keep these mercenaries away from their lands/Kashmir or use them for their targeted objectives against Pakistan,” added the senior military official.
With Cameron in Pakistan posing as harbinger of goodwill and business opportunities, Britain is already out there to actively do what many western analysts call a lap dog service for Americans. But Norwegians and Germans are equally trying their bit to bring the peace talks back on track, even for a photo op. “After all they have done it so many times in the past for Americans by bringing together Palestinians and Israelis and they are hopeful that they will do it again for the Americans. An exasperated American administration, which already has its hands glued deeply in many springs ranging from Tunisia, Egypt to Syria, they want Taliban back on the table at any cost. “Even talks without any pre conditions and outcome will be the first and foremost demand of the Americans right now,” agreed a European diplomat based in Islamabad. “It’s not only the repute but even the safe exit of over 100000 troops from Afghanistan is at stake,” added another Arab diplomat.
Just few weeks back, the entire diplomatic corps in Islamabad was talking very highly about these talks considering them the right step in the right direction and that too at the right time. Many of the ambassadors were skeptical about the outcome but still were hopeful that this will help break the ice and kick start a process which eventually might lead to some manageable solutions for the war torn Afghanistan in particular and for the region in general.
Usual knee jerk reactions from Afghan president Hamid Karzai was less of a botheration for these foreign emissaries because they believed that Karzai just want to remain relevant to this new transition in a country where after almost a decade of rule he himself has become completely irrelevant to the people, the negotiators and even the NATO and US. Not because he will not be running for the next presidential elections due next April but for the sordid stories of corruption surrounding him and his family members. More so because of his complete failure to give any governance to a country where on average 150 billion dollars were raining from all sides (more from US) throughout the past decade. However, the initial deadlock dampened their hopes a bit but still they believe that talks would resume one way or the other.
This uncertainty is certainly doing more harm to the morale of the remaining NATO/US forces than any good, remarked one of the senior security officials while talking to this scribe from Kabul. “It’s not only the army but even the general population and almost over a decade-old Karzai government which is equally perturbed over uncertain future especially after the humiliation Afghans and US had to face in Doha,” he commented. “It will be a big lie if we say that Taliban have not gained even from these stalled talks,” he asserted. Adding he said that though President Obama has himself become involved in this process but the fact remains that Americans faced a double jeopardy and both coming not from their adversaries but from their puppets; one in Kabul and other one in Qatar.
With the Taliban offensive on the rise in Afghanistan and ANA left on its own to deal with the rise in insurgency, dwindling fortunes of peace talks in Doha has put the entire region on high alert. As foreign diplomats in Kabul suggest that the region in itself is alive to all the possible outcomes after the proposed pull out of Americans and NATO forces by mid 2014. To understand what regional countries might be expecting after this much hyped withdrawal of foreign troops from war torn country, this scribe had to talk many diplomats and security analysts in Pakistan and Afghanistan. One thing was for sure that none wanted to say anything on record despite the fact that none had any clue as to what might be in the store for all the regional countries and the departing fighters.
“One thing is for sure that Pakistan will no more be able to remote control the country where once ISI used to call the shots between 1979 and 2005,” remarked one European diplomat based in Kabul. He was of the view that if not more countries than at least a troika of China, India and Pakistan will be there to battle it out between themselves to control an ethnically divided Afghanistan in the post draw down days. “China is a surprise for many but with their heavy investment in copper, precious metals and stones, they are there for sure,” he added.
Talking to some operatives working on Pakistani side of the troubled region it revealed that Chinese and Americans are out there like flies in those lands which they otherwise call as lawless section of Pakistan. “They are there with bagful of dollars to buy out any information which can lead them to any influential TTP man,” he added. Journalists in those areas also endorsed this view because they say that for the first time they are finding Chinese equally engaged in digging out information and informers. Otherwise, they say that it used to be either the plainclothesmen of Pakistani agencies or the bearded Pashto speaking Americans who used to flock the region and pay handsomely to the journalists for any piece of information which they believed was of some value. Though Pakistani operatives chip in to this information hungry atmosphere with their own loaded typical version; Indian involvement in FATA and beyond. They believe that India is not involved in this region to find out that what next plan is being hatched for their lands and secondly that how many out there are heading to pose them a threat in their held Kashmir. ‘Therefore, Indians are not only pumping in money but also doling out Russian and Chinese Kalashnikovs to their nurtured contacts either to keep these mercenaries away from their lands/Kashmir or use them for their targeted objectives against Pakistan,” added the senior military official.
With Cameron in Pakistan posing as harbinger of goodwill and business opportunities, Britain is already out there to actively do what many western analysts call a lap dog service for Americans. But Norwegians and Germans are equally trying their bit to bring the peace talks back on track, even for a photo op. “After all they have done it so many times in the past for Americans by bringing together Palestinians and Israelis and they are hopeful that they will do it again for the Americans. An exasperated American administration, which already has its hands glued deeply in many springs ranging from Tunisia, Egypt to Syria, they want Taliban back on the table at any cost. “Even talks without any pre conditions and outcome will be the first and foremost demand of the Americans right now,” agreed a European diplomat based in Islamabad. “It’s not only the repute but even the safe exit of over 100000 troops from Afghanistan is at stake,” added another Arab diplomat.
Just few weeks back, the entire diplomatic corps in Islamabad was talking very highly about these talks considering them the right step in the right direction and that too at the right time. Many of the ambassadors were skeptical about the outcome but still were hopeful that this will help break the ice and kick start a process which eventually might lead to some manageable solutions for the war torn Afghanistan in particular and for the region in general.
Usual knee jerk reactions from Afghan president Hamid Karzai was less of a botheration for these foreign emissaries because they believed that Karzai just want to remain relevant to this new transition in a country where after almost a decade of rule he himself has become completely irrelevant to the people, the negotiators and even the NATO and US. Not because he will not be running for the next presidential elections due next April but for the sordid stories of corruption surrounding him and his family members. More so because of his complete failure to give any governance to a country where on average 150 billion dollars were raining from all sides (more from US) throughout the past decade. However, the initial deadlock dampened their hopes a bit but still they believe that talks would resume one way or the other.
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